Republicans ended up with a net gain of six Senate seats in what was as close to a textbook wave election as it gets. After getting swamped in the elections, Republicans were hoping to bounce back and turn the page from unpopular, outgoing President George W.
That often happens as it did in , and , and if it does in , Democrats could add as many as five or even six senators. Even though Bush won reelection in , the tide completely turned against him shortly thereafter. His response to Hurricane Katrina in August might have been the final straw. Democrats ended up gaining the six Senate seats and the majority. On the House side, the wave was still developing. In January , the Rothenberg team projected a Democrat gain of five to eight seats with a bias toward even greater Democratic gains.
Along that trajectory, Democrats gained 31 House seats and the majority 11 months later. It was a somewhat similar story on the Senate side. Skip to Content. A year out from the midterms, the trajectory favors Republicans, led by Sen. Mitch McConnell over Democrats, led by Sen.
Charles E. After all, they struggled to pass an Obamacare repeal bill in the House when they had more than members , and it failed in the Senate. So why would Republicans come back to this? Well, some conservative lawmakers on Capitol Hill , major party activists and officials in the Trump administration want to.
And the political environment in could shift in ways that both force Republican party leaders to move in a more conservative direction and make it easier to get conservative proposals through both houses of Congress.
But the House and Senate Republicans who are defeated in November will likely come from the bluer districts and states that the party currently holds — including some where Clinton won in So the remaining Republicans will, on average, represent more conservative constituencies than the current group does. They will not be scared to vote for an Obamacare repeal — after all, they voted for one in the run-up to and kept their seats.
And they may face intense pressure back home from conservatives if they oppose it. Moreover, the more conservative factions among House Republicans, particularly the Freedom Caucus , are likely to have more influence in if the party retains the majority. With Speaker Paul Ryan retiring, Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy is the favorite to become the top Republican in the House, but Freedom Caucus members are looking for ways to either get one of their own elected speaker or extract some concessions from McCarthy.
So McCarthy may have to pledge to pursue an Obamacare repeal and other conservative fiscal policies if he wants to be the speaker. John Yarmuth, a Democrat from Kentucky. Yarmuth is right to bring up the other chamber of Congress. Maybe Trump, despite his rhetoric, has some real respect for the rule of law.
In the vote for vice president, each Senator has one vote. But in the House each state has only one vote for president—regardless of its size—and a presidential candidate needs 26 states to win. As it stands Republicans are in the majority, with control of 26 state delegations. Democrats control 23 state delegations and one state, Pennsylvania, has a tied delegation: 9 Democrats and 9 Republicans.
In the case of a tie it will be the next Congress not the current Congress that votes on the presidency, and a handful of congressional elections could decide the presidential election. Elaine Kamarck Friday, August 9, Start with Pennsylvania, a state that is already getting outsized attention—it was very close in and looks to be close again.
Since its congressional delegation is tied now, if Democrats hold their seats and win only one congressional seat they will control the delegation. But recent polling suggests a neck and neck race. Next is Florida where the Republicans have a one-seat advantage over the Democrats. If one seat switches from Republican to Democrat, control of the Florida delegation moves to Democrats.
Democrats have to hold all the seats they have and pick up one seat.
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